Paper 4, Section I, B

Mathematical Biology
Part II, 2016

A stochastic birth-death process is given by the master equation

dpndt=λ(pn1pn)+μ[(n1)pn1npn]+β[(n+1)pn+1npn]\frac{d p_{n}}{d t}=\lambda\left(p_{n-1}-p_{n}\right)+\mu\left[(n-1) p_{n-1}-n p_{n}\right]+\beta\left[(n+1) p_{n+1}-n p_{n}\right]

where pn(t)p_{n}(t) is the probability that there are nn individuals in the population at time tt for n=0,1,2,n=0,1,2, \ldots and pn=0p_{n}=0 for n<0n<0. Give a brief interpretation of λ,μ\lambda, \mu and β\beta.

Derive an equation for ϕt\frac{\partial \phi}{\partial t}, where ϕ\phi is the generating function

ϕ(s,t)=n=0snpn(t)\phi(s, t)=\sum_{n=0}^{\infty} s^{n} p_{n}(t)

Now assume that β>μ\beta>\mu. Show that at steady state

ϕ=(βμβμs)λ/μ\phi=\left(\frac{\beta-\mu}{\beta-\mu s}\right)^{\lambda / \mu}

and find the corresponding mean and variance.