Paper 1, Section I, B

Mathematical Biology
Part II, 2016

Consider an epidemic model where susceptibles are vaccinated at per capita rate vv, but immunity (from infection or vaccination) is lost at per capita rate bb. The system is given by

dSdt=rIS+b(NIS)vSdIdt=rISaI\begin{aligned} &\frac{d S}{d t}=-r I S+b(N-I-S)-v S \\ &\frac{d I}{d t}=r I S-a I \end{aligned}

where S(t)S(t) are the susceptibles, I(t)I(t) are the infecteds, NN is the total population size and all parameters are positive. The basic reproduction ratio R0=rN/aR_{0}=r N / a satisfies R0>1R_{0}>1.

Find the critical vaccination rate vcv_{c}, in terms of bb and R0R_{0}, such that the system has an equilibrium with the disease present if v<vcv<v_{c}. Show that this equilibrium is stable when it exists.

Find the long-term outcome for SS and II if v>vcv>v_{c}.