Paper 2, Section II, K

Optimization and Control
Part II, 2017

During each of NN time periods a venture capitalist, Vicky, is presented with an investment opportunity for which the rate of return for that period is a random variable; the rates of return in successive periods are independent identically distributed random variables with distributions concentrated on [1,)[-1, \infty). Thus, if xnx_{n} is Vicky's capital at period nn, then xn+1=(1pn)xn+pnxn(1+Rn)x_{n+1}=\left(1-p_{n}\right) x_{n}+p_{n} x_{n}\left(1+R_{n}\right), where pn[0,1]p_{n} \in[0,1] is the proportion of her capital she chooses to invest at period nn, and RnR_{n} is the rate of return for period nn. Vicky desires to maximize her expected yield over NN periods, where the yield is defined as (xNx0)1N1\left(\frac{x_{N}}{x_{0}}\right)^{\frac{1}{N}}-1, and x0x_{0} and xNx_{N} are respectively her initial and final capital.

(a) Express the problem of finding an optimal policy in a dynamic programming framework.

(b) Show that in each time period, the optimal strategy can be expressed in terms of the quantity pp^{*} which solves the optimization problem maxpE(1+pR1)1/N\max _{p} \mathbb{E}\left(1+p R_{1}\right)^{1 / N}. Show that p>0p^{*}>0 if ER1>0\mathbb{E} R_{1}>0. [Do not calculate pp^{*} explicitly.]

(c) Compare her optimal policy with the policy which maximizes her expected final capital xNx_{N}.