Paper 2, Section II, 26 K26 \mathrm{~K}

Principles of Statistics
Part II, 2017

We consider the problem of estimating θ\theta in the model {f(x,θ):θ(0,)}\{f(x, \theta): \theta \in(0, \infty)\}, where

f(x,θ)=(1α)(xθ)α1{x[θ,θ+1]}f(x, \theta)=(1-\alpha)(x-\theta)^{-\alpha} 1\{x \in[\theta, \theta+1]\}

Here 1{A}1\{A\} is the indicator of the set AA, and α(0,1)\alpha \in(0,1) is known. This estimation is based on a sample of nn i.i.d. X1,,XnX_{1}, \ldots, X_{n}, and we denote by X(1)<<X(n)X_{(1)}<\ldots<X_{(n)} the ordered sample.

(a) Compute the mean and the variance of X1X_{1}. Construct an unbiased estimator of θ\theta taking the form θ~n=Xˉn+c(α)\tilde{\theta}_{n}=\bar{X}_{n}+c(\alpha), where Xˉn=n1i=1nXi\bar{X}_{n}=n^{-1} \sum_{i=1}^{n} X_{i}, specifying c(α)c(\alpha).

(b) Show that θ~n\tilde{\theta}_{n} is consistent and find the limit in distribution of n(θ~nθ)\sqrt{n}\left(\tilde{\theta}_{n}-\theta\right). Justify your answer, citing theorems that you use.

(c) Find the maximum likelihood estimator θ^n\hat{\theta}_{n} of θ\theta. Compute P(θ^nθ>t)\mathbf{P}\left(\hat{\theta}_{n}-\theta>t\right) for all real tt. Is θ^n\hat{\theta}_{n} unbiased?

(d) For t>0t>0, show that P(nβ(θ^nθ)>t)\mathbf{P}\left(n^{\beta}\left(\hat{\theta}_{n}-\theta\right)>t\right) has a limit in (0,1)(0,1) for some β>0\beta>0. Give explicitly the value of β\beta and the limit. Why should one favour using θ^n\hat{\theta}_{n} over θ~n\tilde{\theta}_{n} ?