Paper 3, Section II, K

Applied Probability
Part II, 2017

(a) Define the Moran model and Kingman's nn-coalescent. Define Kingman's infinite coalescent.

Show that Kingman's infinite coalescent comes down from infinity. In other words, with probability one, the number of blocks of Πt\Pi_{t} is finite at any time t>0t>0.

(b) Give the definition of a renewal process.

Let (Xi)\left(X_{i}\right) denote the sequence of inter-arrival times of the renewal process NN. Suppose that E[X1]>0\mathbb{E}\left[X_{1}\right]>0.

Prove that P(N(t)\mathbb{P}(N(t) \rightarrow \infty as t)=1t \rightarrow \infty)=1.

Prove that E[eθN(t)]<\mathbb{E}\left[e^{\theta N(t)}\right]<\infty for some strictly positive θ\theta.

[Hint: Consider the renewal process with inter-arrival times Xk=ε1(Xkε)X_{k}^{\prime}=\varepsilon \mathbf{1}\left(X_{k} \geqslant \varepsilon\right) for some suitable ε>0\varepsilon>0.]