Paper 1, Section II, 27 K27 \mathrm{~K}

Applied Probability
Part II, 2017

(a) Define a continuous time Markov chain XX with infinitesimal generator QQ and jump chain YY.

(b) Let ii be a transient state of a continuous-time Markov chain XX with X(0)=iX(0)=i. Show that the time spent in state ii has an exponential distribution and explicitly state its parameter.

[You may use the fact that if SExp(λ)S \sim \operatorname{Exp}(\lambda), then E[eθS]=λ/(λθ)\mathbb{E}\left[e^{\theta S}\right]=\lambda /(\lambda-\theta) for θ<λ\theta<\lambda.]

(c) Let XX be an asymmetric random walk in continuous time on the non-negative integers with reflection at 0 , so that

qi,j={λ if j=i+1,i0μ if j=i1,i1q_{i, j}= \begin{cases}\lambda & \text { if } \quad j=i+1, i \geqslant 0 \\ \mu & \text { if } \quad j=i-1, i \geqslant 1\end{cases}

Suppose that X(0)=0X(0)=0 and λ>μ\lambda>\mu. Show that for all r1r \geqslant 1, the total time TrT_{r} spent in state rr is exponentially distributed with parameter λμ\lambda-\mu.

Assume now that X(0)X(0) has some general distribution with probability generating function GG. Find the expected amount of time spent at 0 in terms of GG.