Paper 3, Section I, B

Mathematical Biology
Part II, 2017

A stochastic birth-death process has a master equation given by

dp(n,t)dt=λ[p(n1,t)p(n,t)]+β[(n+1)p(n+1,t)np(n,t)]\frac{d p(n, t)}{d t}=\lambda[p(n-1, t)-p(n, t)]+\beta[(n+1) p(n+1, t)-n p(n, t)]

where p(n,t)p(n, t) is the probability that there are nn individuals in the population at time tt for n=0,1,2,n=0,1,2, \ldots and p(n,t)=0p(n, t)=0 for n<0n<0.

Give the corresponding Fokker-Planck equation for this system.

Use this Fokker-Planck equation to find expressions for ddtx\frac{d}{d t}\langle x\rangle and ddtx2\frac{d}{d t}\left\langle x^{2}\right\rangle.

[Hint: The general form for a Fokker-Planck equation in P(x,t)P(x, t) is

Pt=x(AP)+122x2(BP)\frac{\partial P}{\partial t}=-\frac{\partial}{\partial x}(A P)+\frac{1}{2} \frac{\partial^{2}}{\partial x^{2}}(B P)

You may use this general form, stating how A(x)A(x) and B(x)B(x) are constructed. Alternatively, you may derive a Fokker-Plank equation directly by working from the master equation.]