Paper 4, Section II, J
Bridge is a card game played by 2 teams of 2 players each. A bridge club records the outcomes of many games between teams formed by its members. The outcomes are modelled by
where is a parameter representing the skill of player , and is a parameter representing how well-matched the team formed by and is.
(a) Would it make sense to include an intercept in this logistic regression model? Explain your answer.
(b) Suppose that players 1 and 2 always play together as a team. Is there a unique maximum likelihood estimate for the parameters and ? Explain your answer.
(c) Under the model defined above, derive the asymptotic distribution (including the values of all relevant parameters) for the maximum likelihood estimate of the probability that team wins a game against team . You can state it as a function of the true vector of parameters , and the Fisher information matrix with games. You may assume that as , and that has a unique maximum likelihood estimate for large enough.