Paper 4, Section II, J

Applied Probability
Part II, 2018

Let X1,X2,X_{1}, X_{2}, \ldots be independent, identically distributed random variables with finite mean μ\mu. Explain what is meant by saying that the random variable MM is a stopping time with respect to the sequence (Xi:i=1,2,)\left(X_{i}: i=1,2, \ldots\right).

Let MM be a stopping time with finite mean E(M)\mathbb{E}(M). Prove Wald's equation:

E(i=1MXi)=μE(M)\mathbb{E}\left(\sum_{i=1}^{M} X_{i}\right)=\mu \mathbb{E}(M)

[Here and in the following, you may use any standard theorem about integration.]

Suppose the XiX_{i} are strictly positive, and let NN be the renewal process with interarrival times (Xi:i=1,2,)\left(X_{i}: i=1,2, \ldots\right). Prove that m(t)=E(Nt)m(t)=\mathbb{E}\left(N_{t}\right) satisfies the elementary renewal theorem:

1tm(t)1μ as t.\frac{1}{t} m(t) \rightarrow \frac{1}{\mu} \quad \text { as } t \rightarrow \infty .

A computer keyboard contains 100 different keys, including the lower and upper case letters, the usual symbols, and the space bar. A monkey taps the keys uniformly at random. Find the mean number of keys tapped until the first appearance of the sequence 'lava' as a sequence of 4 consecutive characters.

Find the mean number of keys tapped until the first appearance of the sequence 'aa' as a sequence of 2 consecutive characters.