Paper 3, Section II, J

Applied Probability
Part II, 2018

Individuals arrive in a shop in the manner of a Poisson process with intensity λ\lambda, and they await service in the order of their arrival. Their service times are independent, identically distributed random variables S1,S2,S_{1}, S_{2}, \ldots. For n1n \geqslant 1, let QnQ_{n} be the number remaining in the shop immediately after the nnth departure. Show that

Qn+1=An+Qnh(Qn)Q_{n+1}=A_{n}+Q_{n}-h\left(Q_{n}\right)

where AnA_{n} is the number of arrivals during the (n+1)(n+1) th service period, and h(x)=h(x)= min{1,x}\min \{1, x\}.

Show that

E(An)=ρ,E(An2)=ρ+λ2E(S2),\mathbb{E}\left(A_{n}\right)=\rho, \quad \mathbb{E}\left(A_{n}^{2}\right)=\rho+\lambda^{2} \mathbb{E}\left(S^{2}\right),

where SS is a typical service period, and ρ=λE(S)\rho=\lambda \mathbb{E}(S) is the traffic intensity of the queue.

Suppose ρ<1\rho<1, and the queue is in equilibrium in the sense that QnQ_{n} and Qn+1Q_{n+1} have the same distribution for all nn. Express E(Qn)\mathbb{E}\left(Q_{n}\right) in terms of λ,E(S),E(S2)\lambda, \mathbb{E}(S), \mathbb{E}\left(S^{2}\right). Deduce that the mean waiting time (prior to service) of a typical individual is 12λE(S2)/(1ρ)\frac{1}{2} \lambda \mathbb{E}\left(S^{2}\right) /(1-\rho).