Paper 1, Section I, 6C\mathbf{6 C}

Mathematical Biology
Part II, 2018

Consider a birth-death process in which the birth and death rates in a population of size nn are, respectively, BnB n and DnD n, where BB and DD are per capita birth and death rates.

(a) Write down the master equation for the probability, pn(t)p_{n}(t), of the population having size nn at time tt.

(b) Obtain the differential equations for the rates of change of the mean μ(t)=n\mu(t)=\langle n\rangle and the variance σ2(t)=n2n2\sigma^{2}(t)=\left\langle n^{2}\right\rangle-\langle n\rangle^{2} in terms of μ,σ,B\mu, \sigma, B and DD.

(c) Compare the equations obtained above with the deterministic description of the evolution of the population size, dn/dt=(BD)nd n / d t=(B-D) n. Comment on why BB and DD cannot be uniquely deduced from the deterministic model but can be deduced from the stochastic description.