Paper 2, Section I, C

Mathematical Biology
Part II, 2018

Consider a model of an epidemic consisting of populations of susceptible, S(t)S(t), infected, I(t)I(t), and recovered, R(t)R(t), individuals that obey the following differential equations

dSdt=aRbSIdIdt=bSIcIdRdt=cIaR\begin{aligned} \frac{d S}{d t} &=a R-b S I \\ \frac{d I}{d t} &=b S I-c I \\ \frac{d R}{d t} &=c I-a R \end{aligned}

where a,ba, b and cc are constant. Show that the sum of susceptible, infected and recovered individuals is a constant NN. Find the fixed points of the dynamics and deduce the condition for an endemic state with a positive number of infected individuals. Expressing RR in terms of S,IS, I and NN, reduce the system of equations to two coupled differential equations and, hence, deduce the conditions for the fixed point to be a node or a focus. How do small perturbations of the populations relax to the steady state in each case?