Paper 2, Section II, 29K29 K

Stochastic Financial Models
Part II, 2019

(a) In the context of a multi-period model in discrete time, what does it mean to say that a probability measure is an equivalent martingale measure?

(b) State the fundamental theorem of asset pricing.

(c) Consider a single-period model with one risky asset S1S^{1} having initial price S01=1S_{0}^{1}=1. At time 1 its value S11S_{1}^{1} is a random variable on (Ω,F,P)(\Omega, \mathcal{F}, \mathbb{P}) of the form

S11=exp(σZ+m),mR,σ>0,S_{1}^{1}=\exp (\sigma Z+m), \quad m \in \mathbb{R}, \sigma>0,

where ZN(0,1)Z \sim \mathcal{N}(0,1). Assume that there is a riskless numéraire S0S^{0} with S00=S10=1S_{0}^{0}=S_{1}^{0}=1. Show that there is no arbitrage in this model.

[Hint: You may find it useful to consider a density of the form exp(σ~Z+m~)\exp (\tilde{\sigma} Z+\tilde{m}) and find suitable m~\tilde{m} and σ~\tilde{\sigma}. You may use without proof that if XX is a normal random variable then E(eX)=exp(E(X)+12Var(X))\mathbb{E}\left(e^{X}\right)=\exp \left(\mathbb{E}(X)+\frac{1}{2} \operatorname{Var}(X)\right).]

(d) Now consider a multi-period model with one risky asset S1S^{1} having a non-random initial price S01=1S_{0}^{1}=1 and a price process (St1)t{0,,T}\left(S_{t}^{1}\right)_{t \in\{0, \ldots, T\}} of the form

St1=i=1texp(σiZi+mi),miR,σi>0S_{t}^{1}=\prod_{i=1}^{t} \exp \left(\sigma_{i} Z_{i}+m_{i}\right), \quad m_{i} \in \mathbb{R}, \sigma_{i}>0

where ZiZ_{i} are i.i.d. N(0,1)\mathcal{N}(0,1)-distributed random variables on (Ω,F,P)(\Omega, \mathcal{F}, \mathbb{P}). Assume that there is a constant riskless numéraire S0S^{0} with St0=1S_{t}^{0}=1 for all t{0,,T}t \in\{0, \ldots, T\}. Show that there exists no arbitrage in this model.