Paper 1, Section II, 28K

Applied Probability
Part II, 2020

(a) What is meant by a birth process N=(N(t):t0)N=(N(t): t \geqslant 0) with strictly positive rates λ0,λ1,?\lambda_{0}, \lambda_{1}, \ldots ? Explain what is meant by saying that NN is non-explosive.

(b) Show that NN is non-explosive if and only if

n=01λn=\sum_{n=0}^{\infty} \frac{1}{\lambda_{n}}=\infty

(c) Suppose N(0)=0N(0)=0, and λn=αn+β\lambda_{n}=\alpha n+\beta where α,β>0\alpha, \beta>0. Show that

E(N(t))=βα(eαt1).\mathbb{E}(N(t))=\frac{\beta}{\alpha}\left(e^{\alpha t}-1\right) .