Paper 3, Section I, B

Mathematical Biology
Part II, 2020

Consider a model for the common cold in which the population is partitioned into susceptible (S)(S), infective (I)(I), and recovered (R)(R) categories, which satisfy

dSdt=αRβSIdIdt=βSIγIdRdt=γIαR\begin{aligned} \frac{d S}{d t} &=\alpha R-\beta S I \\ \frac{d I}{d t} &=\beta S I-\gamma I \\ \frac{d R}{d t} &=\gamma I-\alpha R \end{aligned}

where α,β\alpha, \beta and γ\gamma are positive constants.

(i) Show that the sum NS+I+RN \equiv S+I+R does not change in time.

(ii) Determine the condition, in terms of β,γ\beta, \gamma and NN, for an endemic steady state to exist, that is, a time-independent state with a non-zero number of infectives.

(iii) By considering a reduced set of equations for SS and II only, show that the endemic steady state identified in (ii) above, if it exists, is stable.