Paper 4, Section I, B

Mathematical Biology
Part II, 2020

Consider a population process in which the probability of transition from a state with nn individuals to a state with n+1n+1 individuals in the interval (t,t+Δt)(t, t+\Delta t) is λnΔt\lambda n \Delta t for small Δt\Delta t.

(i) Write down the master equation for the probability, Pn(t)P_{n}(t), of the state nn at time tt for n1n \geqslant 1

(ii) Assuming an initial distribution

Pn(0)={1, if n=10, if n>1P_{n}(0)= \begin{cases}1, & \text { if } n=1 \\ 0, & \text { if } n>1\end{cases}

show that

Pn(t)=exp(λt)(1exp(λt))n1P_{n}(t)=\exp (-\lambda t)(1-\exp (-\lambda t))^{n-1}

(iii) Hence, determine the mean of nn for t>0t>0.