Paper 4 , Section I, J

Statistical Modelling
Part II, 2021

The data frame data contains the daily number of new avian influenza cases in a large poultry farm.

Write down the model being fitted by the RR code below. Does the model seem to provide a satisfactory fit to the data? Justify your answer.

The owner of the farm estimated that the size of the epidemic was initially doubling every 7 days. Is that estimate supported by the analysis below? [You may need log20.69\log 2 \approx 0.69.]