Paper 1, Section I, 6E

Mathematical Biology
Part II, 2021

(a) Consider a population of size N(t)N(t) whose per capita rates of birth and death are beaNb e^{-a N} and dd, respectively, where b>db>d and all parameters are positive constants.

(i) Write down the equation for the rate of change of the population.

(ii) Show that a population of size N=1alogbdN^{*}=\frac{1}{a} \log \frac{b}{d} is stationary and that it is asymptotically stable.

(b) Consider now a disease introduced into this population, where the number of susceptibles and infectives, SS and II, respectively, satisfy the equations

dSdt=beaSSβSIdSdIdt=βSI(d+δ)I\begin{aligned} &\frac{d S}{d t}=b e^{-a S} S-\beta S I-d S \\ &\frac{d I}{d t}=\beta S I-(d+\delta) I \end{aligned}

(i) Interpret the biological meaning of each term in the above equations and comment on the reproductive capacity of the susceptible and infected individuals.

(ii) Show that the disease-free equilibrium, S=NS=N^{*} and I=0I=0, is linearly unstable if

N>d+δβN^{*}>\frac{d+\delta}{\beta}

(iii) Show that when the disease-free equilibrium is unstable there exists an endemic equilibrium satisfying

βI+d=beaS\beta I+d=b e^{-a S}

and that this equilibrium is linearly stable.